How Can TC Energy Company Grow Through Products and Customers?

How can TC Energy expand customers by selling more gas and power to growing LNG and AI data center markets?

TC Energy can scale via pipelines and power links that serve rising LNG exports and AI data centers. 2025 demand signals show North American LNG capacity additions and hyperscaler power bids lifting long-term utilization.

Focus on customer contracts and capacity expansions to lock revenues; pursue targeted interconnects for data centers and LNG terminals. See the TC Energy Business Model Canvas

The next wave of TC Energy growth will come from LNG export feed and gas-to-power for data centers, plus Mexico industrial demand; LNG Canada Phase 1 and Coastal GasLink provide immediate volume while Southeast Gateway and U.S./Canadian power markets unlock new customers.

Primary growth: LNG feed and export volumes

Completion of LNG Canada Phase 1 in early 2026 positions TC Energy as the primary feed gas provider via Coastal GasLink into a 2.1 Bcf/d demand sink, creating predictable throughput revenue and utilization uplift for existing pipelines.

Geographic expansion: Mexico industrial corridor

Nearshoring drives industrial growth in southern Mexico; Southeast Gateway pipeline can serve manufacturing clusters, adding incremental volumes and new commercial customers as regional energy intensity rises.

Product upside: gas-to-power for data centers

Targeting data center operators for 24/7 baseload gas supply and utility-scale gas turbines could convert intermittent renewables exposure into stable gas sales; U.S. and Canadian data center capacity expanded by double digits in 2024-2025, indicating material addressable demand.

Most credible 2025/2026 driver: contracted throughput to LNG and anchor power customers

Near-term realism: long-term take-or-pay or firm transportation contracts tied to LNG Canada and commercial power off-takers reduce volume risk; these contract structures support predictable EBITDA and facilitate financing for incremental capacity.

Customer Profile of TC Energy Company

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TC Energy is building pipelines, expanding gas systems, and upgrading nuclear capacity to convert demand opportunities into contracted volumes and low-carbon electricity sales. The company is prioritizing high-return, low-risk projects and targeted customer linkages to grow product offerings and corporate customers.

Expansion Priorities: North American footprint and Mexico market entry

Focus on Mexico market access via the Southeast Gateway pipeline to tap new commercial and power-generation customers, and continued NGTL System expansions to unlock Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin supply for industrial and LNG offtakers.

Product or Service Innovation: Carbon-free power and bundled energy solutions

Commercialize life-extended nuclear output from Bruce Power as a carbon-free product for sustainability-focused corporates and governments, and package gas transportation with energy services to increase customer retention and cross-sell.

Technology or Capability Build-Out: Operational upgrades and digital customer platforms

Invest in automation and digitized contracting for capacity scheduling, and operational uprates on NGTL and Bruce Power to increase throughput and reliability-supporting faster commercial onboarding and improved customer experience.

Partnerships or Acquisitions: Commercial tie-ups and offtake agreements

Pursue long-term offtake contracts with Mexican power generators and industrial customers, strategic partnerships with LNG buyers and corporate sustainability buyers, and selective M&A to add complementary midstream assets or retail energy capabilities.

Investment and Execution: Disciplined capital program and project focus

Executing a disciplined US$6-7 billion annual capital program focused on high-return, low-risk projects; core 2025/2026 spend centers on the US$4.5 billion Southeast Gateway and NGTL expansions to drive contracted volumes.

The Most Important Growth Bet: Southeast Gateway plus Bruce Power uprates

The Southeast Gateway pipeline (1.3 Bcf/d capacity) is the primary bet to access Mexican demand, while Bruce Power life-extension and uprating secures carbon-free megawatt supply to capture Ontario's ~2 percent annual electricity demand growth and corporate renewable mandates.

TC Energy growth strategies hinge on pipeline expansion to attract commercial customers, product diversification into carbon-free power, and customer acquisition via bundled services; see Why Customers Choose TC Energy Company for context: Why Customers Choose TC Energy Company

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The biggest threat to TC Energy's product-market fit is policy and price shifts that reduce demand for long-haul gas infrastructure-regulatory delays, politicized permitting, or a fast drop in gas demand versus renewables could cut the need for new pipeline capacity.

Regulatory and Demand Shock

Slower LNG growth or stricter permitting can shrink addressable markets for pipeline and midstream services. If North American LNG exports stall-as seen with project delays and cost increases-TC Energy growth strategies tied to export capacity face direct headwinds.

Competition and Pricing Pressure

Global oversupply from Qatar and Australia, or a collapse in global gas prices, reduces pipeline throughput economics and tariff power. Battery and renewables cost declines raise the threat of fuel-switching away from gas-fired generation, pressuring margins and customer acquisition for gas transport.

Execution and Capital Risk

Large projects commonly run over budget; Coastal GasLink experienced capital escalation that highlights budget volatility for pipeline builds. Extended permitting timelines and rising capital costs can delay returns and strain cashflow for new product launches or pipeline expansion.

Main Risk to the 2025-2026 Growth Story

The clearest near-term risk is a combined regulatory-price shock: if 2025-2026 policy shifts slow LNG project approvals while LNG spot prices fall, demand for new capacity feeding export terminals could evaporate, undermining TC Energy customer acquisition and product diversification plans.

Leadership and Ownership of TC Energy Company

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TC Energy's customer-led growth story looks strong and highly visible, driven by regulated and long-term contracted cash flows that underpin project funding. The outlook is positive due to deleveraging and high-visibility project deliveries, though commodity exposure and permitting remain watchpoints.

Customer-Led Growth: Convincing, Visible, and Fundable

TC Energy's growth thesis is convincing: ~97 percent of 2025 EBITDA comes from regulated or long-term contracted assets, debt stands at the target 4.75x debt-to-EBITDA, and major projects are moving from construction risk to revenue generation.

• Regulated cash flow backbone: ~97 percent of EBITDA from regulated or contracted assets provides rare cash-flow stability in energy infrastructure expansion.
• Key strategic build-out: LNG Canada commissioning and Southeast Gateway nearing completion materially increase contracted capacity and customer acquisition opportunities for natural gas and renewable integration.
• Main downside risk: residual commodity price exposure, permitting/timing delays, and potential capex overruns on late-stage projects could compress returns despite strong contract coverage.
• Overall 2025/2026 judgment: Strong - balance-sheet deleveraging plus self-funding capability and long-term contracts make the TC Energy growth strategies and product diversification credible for midstream leadership.

Evidence and numbers: 2025 EBITDA concentration (~97 percent) and achieved leverage (4.75x) enable self-funding of growth projects; LNG Canada adds contracted LNG volumes and Southeast Gateway expands pipeline takeaway capacity, supporting TC Energy customer acquisition and product diversification.

Product and customer levers to watch: pipeline expansion to attract commercial customers, LNG and power-related product bundles, cross-selling compression and storage services, and corporate partnerships and M&A to accelerate natural gas and renewable integration and broaden the customer base.

Investor considerations: steady regulated cash flows, improved credit metrics, and high-visibility project completions reduce execution risk and make the growth story one of the most compelling in North American midstream; still monitor project commissioning schedules and counterparty credit strength for downside risk.

Related reading: Brand Story of TC Energy Company

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